Is Something Happening in Iran?

Andrew Sullivan, a writer and thinker I have a great deal of respect for, seems to think there is. Over at The Atlantic, Sullivan is chronicling the upcoming elections, and some posts of his discuss the potential movement against Ahmadinejad, such as those here, here and here.

I will admit I was much more optimistic over the recent elections in Lebanon than I am regarding tomorrow's Iranian elections. Middle East expert Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, writing for the Brookings Institute, outlines the terms in Iran:

The goal of the reformists for Friday is to take the election to the second round, where they think they have a good chance of defeating Mr. Ahmadinejad. Odds are good that this will happen, but by no means will it be easy. First, Mr. Ahmadinejad is a formidable campaigner and enjoys the implicit support of the Supreme Leader as well as large sections of the lower classes. Second, in the last two years he has been busy redistributing income to the lower strata and evidence shows that this may have succeeded in creating greater support. Finally, no president of the Islamic Republic has served just one term throughout Iran’s history.

As Sullivan states, this is not a completely fair election, and the scales will be tipped towards Ahmadinejad. However, if the reformers can push this into the second round, that will be a victory in itself. Coupled with the pro-Western victory in Lebanon earlier in the week, it will be a second straight signal to the rest of the Middle East that perhaps, just perhaps, things are changing. And that perhaps, something is happening.